Operations

The Workbench as a tool for Planning

The Virtual Ecology Workbench can be used as a planning tool for management of the marine environment, health and fisheries. It is used for What-If? Prediction.

Managing marine resources

Most marine resources are found in coastal waters. They include transport, mineral extraction (oil, gas, building materials), fisheries, leisure and defence. These resources contribute around 5% to the world economy. But that under states their importance. Their true importance is revealed by considering the economic consequences of their interrupion. For example, shipping is growing at about 8% per year. It is remarkably cheap, but its loss can do great damage to the economy. Similarly, the fishing industry probably contributes negatively to the world economy, but its loss can pose severe problems for human nutrition in poor countries and for income tourism.

Exploiting these resources can damage the environment. There are also natural hazards that damage the environment. The loss of amenity presented by environmental damage, whether natural or the result of human activities, can have severe consequences for the economy and quality of life. There is a growing body of legislation aimed at constraining such damage without losing the benefits of the sea. National agencies have been established to ensure compliance with the legislation, and more generally to make the coastal environment attractive for residents and tourists.

What-If? Prediction

Managing problems of the marine environment is based on expectations about what will happen when a threatening event occurs. The event might be a natural hazard, or the result of human activity. The expectations are concerned with changes in the environment, human health or fish stocks (natural or farmed) that will occur as the result of the event. Management is concerned to assess those changes for various remedial actions, including taking no action (“business as usual”). This procedure is called What-if Prediction (WIP). It involves two parts: (1) simulating the ecosystem with the threatening event, and (2) imposing each of the proposed courses of action in turn.

Induction and prognostic modelling

In the 20th century, What-If? Prediction was based on experience of what happened in the past, often at other locations. Prediction was based on the method of induction. In effect it was assumed that history would repeat itself. The problem is that history does not repeat itself precisely enough to serve as a useful basis for planning. When a threatening event occurs in future, the system will already have been changed by many other events, including climate change, and development of industry, transport and tourism. The combination of these factors presents a challenge that cannot be solved by induction. The 21st century solution is to build a prognostic model that can simulate the system realistically when combined with an appropriate scenario. That tool can be used for What-If? Prediction by suitably enhancing the scenario.

The ecosystem

During the 20th century there was growing scientific evidence that the environment depends on complex processes involving biofeedback controlled by micro-organisms. Furthermore, migrating plankton can effect transport of chemicals through the thermocline at a rate that greatly exceeds turbulent diffusion, with significant impact on the environment. It is therefore necessary to take an ecosystem approach to managing probems of the environment. What-If? Prediction must be based on ecosystem modelling.